Now if I can figure out how to do the "gradual return to a social life" thing.
⧫
When the talking heads on the news do one of those news stories about "the latest polls", I always think about all the polls showing Clinton ahead of Trump. The reason they said that is because they only looked at one or two polls. This is a bad way to make a prediction.
Let's say you are conducting a poll on, oh, I don't know, let's say you wanted to know if golf was more popular than darts. So you get your clipboard and set off to ask 100 people the following question:
Do you prefer to play golf or play darts?
If 80 people say they prefer golf, you would have a poll that says, "Overwhelming number of people (80% margin of error ±3%) prefer golf over darts!"
Now here is the twist. What if you asked 100 Englishmen who were hanging out in pubs with dart boards? I'm betting you would have a poll that says, "A incredible number of people (99% margin of error ±1%) prefer darts over golf!"
See how that works?
It depends on who your target audience is. It depends on who you ask.
Oh sure, the pollsters try to avoid situations like that but when you consider the type of individual who responds to polls, you begin to understand why polls are bullshit. People that respond to polls are people who think their opinion is important. They like telling people what they think. They know what's best and they're gonna let everyone know it! In other words, they are basically the same people you see at every protest in Northampton.
I can't speak for most old, fat, bald white guys but I know that when I get a call from someone who starts by saying, "Hi. I'm calling from blah-blah-blah and I'm wondering if you have a time to answer a few questions", I say, "No" and then hang up the phone. My opinion is none of their damned business.
One of my favorite political websites is 538 (fivethirtyeight.com). They don't conduct polls, they collect the data from polls, grade the process the pollster used and then aggregate all the data from those polls that pass their muster.
In other words, they try to offset any poll bias by putting everything together, thus erasing the bias.
It's looking like Trump is a one-term president, which I'm good with. What I'm not good with is Biden. The last thing we need is an Obama clone. Obama did more damage to this country than Carter did back in the 70s.
⧫
Here are some links:
- Here's a tip for all the alleged researchers out there: If you want to see how animals live, don't send something dressed as food to spy on them. This is like sending a robot dressed as an antelope to spy on a pride of lions.
- Apparently islam forbids booze but meth is okay.
- This is the most entertaining minute and a half you will spend this evening.
- I'd go have a beer at a bar named Pubby McDrunkface.
- Covid is never going to go away as long as Floridians are in charge of Florida.
No comments:
Post a Comment